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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 11.5% - 10.5% | 11.0% |
Perpetuity Growth Rate | 6.3% - 7.3% | 6.8% |
Fair Value | €17.87 - €27.73 | €21.65 |
Upside | 18.0% - 83.0% | 42.9% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
(EUR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | |
Revenue | 201 | 204 | 212 | 228 | 236 | 241 | |
% Growth | -8.5% | 1.4% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | |
EBITDA | 32 | 35 | 34 | 38 | 39 | 40 | |
% of Revenue | 15.7% | 17.2% | 16.1% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
(EUR in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Terminal | |
EBITDA | 35 | 34 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 40 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (13) | (15) | (16) | (17) | (17) | (23) | |
EBIT | 22 | 19 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 18 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (4) | |
NOPAT | 14 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 13 |
Capital Expenditures | (14) | (30) | (25) | (15) | (23) | (24) | (24) |
NWC Investment | 3 | (0) | (2) | (3) | (1) | (1) | (3) |
(+) D&A | 13 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 23 |
Free Cash Flow | 17 | (1) | 3 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
% Growth | NM | NM | 393% | -38% | 9% | -8% |