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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 9.4x - 10.4x | 9.9x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 5.5x - 6.1x | 5.8x |
| Fair Value | €10.44 - €12.72 | €11.58 |
| Upside | -45.8% - -33.9% | -39.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| DEUTZ Aktiengesellschaft | 1DEZ | BIT:1DEZ |
| Traton SE | 18TRA | BIT:18TRA |
| Daimler Truck Holding AG | 1DTRH | BIT:1DTRH |
| Oshkosh Corporation | OK3 | DB:OK3 |
| AB Volvo (publ) | 1VOLVB | BIT:1VOLVB |
| Iveco Group N.V. | IVG | BIT:IVG |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 1DEZ | 18TRA | 1DTRH | OK3 | 1VOLVB | IVG | ||
| BIT:1DEZ | BIT:18TRA | BIT:1DTRH | DB:OK3 | BIT:1VOLVB | BIT:IVG | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -16.4% | 18.2% | 10.1% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 12.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 12.9% | 51.3% | 30.2% | 29.8% | 18.0% | 27.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -95.5% | -6.6% | -17.5% | 0.1% | -39.8% | -44.8% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 2.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 3.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 6.4% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 14.6% | 5.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 1.9% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 12.9% | 5.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 0.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 3.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.68x | 0.78x | 1.00x | 0.89x | 1.52x | 0.55x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 17.5x | 5.8x | 10.0x | 7.9x | 12.6x | 9.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 231.1x | 8.9x | 11.9x | 9.5x | 14.4x | 13.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 8.9x | 11.9x | 231.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 5.6x | 5.6x | 11.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 9.4x | 9.9x | 10.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 587 | 587 | 587 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,499 | 5,788 | 6,078 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,997) | (2,997) | (2,997) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,502 | 2,791 | 3,081 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 266.3 | 266.3 | 266.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 9.39 | 10.48 | 11.57 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 9.39 | 10.48 | 11.57 | 19.25 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -51.2% | -45.6% | -39.9% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 1DEZ | 18TRA | 1DTRH | OK3 | 1VOLVB | IVG | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,256 | 36,308 | 58,927 | 9,377 | 881,875 | 8,124 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 86 | 2,343 | 10,430 | 210 | 61,631 | 2,640 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 45 | 1,891 | 945 | 0 | 22,671 | 70 | |
| (-) Debt | (296) | (24,276) | (30,331) | (1,478) | (265,593) | (5,639) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (6) | (591) | 0 | (3,096) | (68) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,091 | 16,260 | 39,380 | 8,109 | 697,488 | 5,127 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 138.8 | 500.0 | 892.0 | 64.4 | 2,513.7 | 266.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 7.86 | 32.52 | 44.15 | 125.97 | 277.47 | 19.25 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.18 | 11.19 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.86 | 32.52 | 44.15 | 107.00 | 24.80 | 19.25 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.18 | 11.19 | 1.00 | |