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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.9x - 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.9x - 1.0x | 0.9x |
| Fair Value | zł20.26 - zł22.65 | zł21.46 |
| Upside | -15.6% - -5.6% | -10.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Arctic Paper S.A. | ATC | WSE:ATC |
| Koszalinskie Przedsiebiorstwo Przemyslu Drzewnego Spólka Akcyjna | KPD | WSE:KPD |
| KLON Spólka Akcyjna | KLN | WSE:KLN |
| Standrew S.A. | STD | WSE:STD |
| James Cropper PLC | 6JC | DB:6JC |
| Przedsiebiorstwo Produkcyjno - Handlowe KOMPAP S.A. | KMP | WSE:KMP |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| ATC | KPD | KLN | STD | 6JC | KMP | |||
| WSE:ATC | WSE:KPD | WSE:KLN | WSE:STD | DB:6JC | WSE:KMP | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | -2.7% | 0.6% | 5.4% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 7.6% | 3.9% | 0.4% | -1.5% | 10.0% | 11.0% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -9.4% | -8.3% | -2.2% | -23.8% | -23.0% | -11.4% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 8.8% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 7.4% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 17.0% | -6.1% | 0.4% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 8.5% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 9.8% | -11.4% | -15.4% | 6.4% | 0.4% | 4.5% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 6.7% | -11.4% | -15.4% | 6.4% | -3.0% | 3.0% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.41x | 0.14x | 1.91x | 1.10x | 0.29x | 1.14x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 6.1x | -1.1x | -12.4x | 17.1x | -9.6x | 37.3x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.32x | 0.14x | 1.51x | 0.60x | 0.16x | 1.03x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.14x | 0.41x | 1.91x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.64x | 0.73x | 1.20x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.94x | 0.99x | 1.04x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 109 | 109 | 109 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 102 | 107 | 113 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (11) | (11) | (11) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 91 | 96 | 101 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 19.35 | 20.50 | 21.64 | |||||
| FX Rate: PLN/PLN | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 19.35 | 20.50 | 21.64 | 24.00 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -19.4% | -14.6% | -9.8% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ATC | KPD | KLN | STD | 6JC | KMP | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,396 | 47 | 46 | 19 | 26 | 124 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 254 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (227) | (7) | (10) | (9) | (24) | (13) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (330) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,099 | 46 | 36 | 11 | 13 | 112 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 69.3 | 1.6 | 23.4 | 1.5 | 9.6 | 4.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 15.86 | 28.40 | 1.55 | 7.00 | 1.40 | 24.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.84 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 15.86 | 28.40 | 1.55 | 7.00 | 1.67 | 24.00 | |
| Trading Currency | PLN | PLN | PLN | PLN | EUR | PLN | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.84 | 1.00 | |