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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 11.3% - 10.3% | 10.8% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 3.2x - 3.6x | 3.4x |
Fair Value | C$45.18 - C$52.06 | C$48.56 |
Upside | 1.5% - 17.0% | 9.1% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(CAD in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 9,065 | 10,153 | 11,243 | 11,476 | 11,256 | 10,728 |
% Growth | 40.0% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 2.1% | -1.9% | -4.7% |
EBITDA | 2,643 | 3,875 | 4,842 | 4,713 | 4,403 | 4,007 |
% of Revenue | 29.2% | 38.2% | 43.1% | 41.1% | 39.1% | 37.4% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(CAD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 3,875 | 4,842 | 4,713 | 4,403 | 4,007 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (1,855) | (1,791) | (1,703) | (1,204) | (1,061) | |
EBIT | 2,020 | 3,051 | 3,010 | 3,199 | 2,947 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (586) | (885) | (873) | (928) | (854) | |
NOPAT | 662 | 1,434 | 2,167 | 2,137 | 2,271 | 2,092 |
Capital Expenditures | (2,635) | (2,526) | (2,496) | (2,467) | (1,846) | (1,484) |
NWC Investment | (533) | (224) | (224) | (48) | 45 | 109 |
(+) D&A | 1,710 | 1,855 | 1,791 | 1,703 | 1,204 | 1,061 |
Free Cash Flow | (795) | 539 | 1,237 | 1,325 | 1,675 | 1,777 |
% Growth | NM | 129% | 7% | 26% | 6% |