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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 7.8x - 8.6x | 8.2x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 5.4x - 6.0x | 5.7x |
Fair Value | C$30.63 - C$35.15 | C$32.89 |
Upside | -6.8% - 7.0% | 0.1% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Suncor Energy Inc. | SU | TSX:SU |
Pembina Pipeline Corporation | PPL | TSX:PPL |
Imperial Oil Limited | IMO | TSX:IMO |
Hemisphere Energy Corporation | HME | TSXV:HME |
InPlay Oil Corp. | IPO | TSX:IPO |
Strathcona Resources Ltd. | SCR | TSX:SCR |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
SU | PPL | IMO | HME | IPO | SCR | ||
TSX:SU | TSX:PPL | TSX:IMO | TSXV:HME | TSX:IPO | TSX:SCR | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 35.0% | 7.9% | 25.1% | 55.9% | 49.6% | NM- | |
3Y CAGR | 15.4% | 9.5% | 24.4% | 43.2% | -37.3% | NM- | |
Latest Twelve Months | -0.1% | 36.0% | 0.5% | 36.9% | -59.6% | 9.5% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 12.1% | 26.3% | 9.1% | 40.3% | 24.2% | 24.8% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 19.4% | 33.3% | 12.5% | 48.9% | 25.1% | 25.3% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 18.2% | 34.8% | 12.2% | 55.1% | 14.4% | 24.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 18.3% | 35.0% | 12.3% | 55.0% | 9.8% | 24.9% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.53x | 5.00x | 1.14x | 1.98x | 2.61x | 1.97x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.7x | 10.9x | 7.0x | 3.0x | 5.3x | 4.8x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 8.4x | 14.3x | 9.3x | 3.6x | 26.8x | 7.9x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 3.6x | 9.3x | 26.8x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 7.4x | 8.3x | 9.3x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 7.8x | 8.2x | 8.6x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 1,223 | 1,223 | 1,223 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 9,541 | 10,043 | 10,545 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,641) | (2,641) | (2,641) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 6,900 | 7,402 | 7,904 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 214.2 | 214.2 | 214.2 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 32.21 | 34.55 | 36.90 | ||||
FX Rate: CAD/CAD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 32.21 | 34.55 | 36.90 | 32.85 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -2.0% | 5.2% | 12.3% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | SU | PPL | IMO | HME | IPO | SCR | |
Enterprise Value | 77,459 | 40,617 | 58,912 | 168 | 351 | 9,678 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,773 | 155 | 1,764 | 21 | 0 | 482 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 4,215 | 1,080 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (14,790) | (13,142) | (4,249) | (4) | (69) | (3,122) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | (2,161) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 65,442 | 29,684 | 57,507 | 186 | 283 | 7,038 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,227.6 | 580.9 | 509.0 | 95.4 | 27.9 | 214.2 | |
Implied Stock Price | 53.31 | 51.10 | 112.97 | 1.95 | 10.12 | 32.85 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 53.31 | 51.10 | 112.97 | 1.95 | 10.12 | 32.85 | |
Trading Currency | CAD | CAD | CAD | CAD | CAD | CAD | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |