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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 7.9x - 9.9x | 8.9x |
| Fair Value | ¥455.85 - ¥661.52 | ¥555.07 |
| Upside | -34.1% - -4.4% | -19.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 |
| Revenue | 23,260 | 24,074 | 24,556 | 25,047 | 25,548 | 26,059 | 26,580 | 27,111 | 27,654 | 28,207 | 28,771 |
| % Growth | 9.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 1,586 | 1,602 | 1,634 | 1,666 | 1,700 | 1,734 | 1,768 | 1,804 | 1,840 | 1,877 | 1,914 |
| % of Revenue | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | |
| EBITDA | 1,602 | 1,634 | 1,666 | 1,700 | 1,734 | 1,768 | 1,804 | 1,840 | 1,877 | 1,914 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (811) | (827) | (844) | (861) | (878) | (895) | (913) | (932) | (950) | (969) | |
| EBIT | 791 | 807 | 823 | 839 | 856 | 873 | 891 | 908 | 927 | 945 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (245) | (250) | (255) | (260) | (265) | (271) | (276) | (282) | (287) | (293) | |
| NOPAT | 529 | 546 | 557 | 568 | 579 | 591 | 602 | 615 | 627 | 639 | 652 |
| Capital Expenditures | (533) | (893) | (976) | (996) | (1,016) | (1,036) | (1,016) | (1,022) | (1,025) | (1,021) | (1,023) |
| NWC Investment | (50) | (20) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (14) | (14) |
| (+) D&A | 819 | 811 | 827 | 844 | 861 | 878 | 895 | 913 | 932 | 950 | 969 |
| Free Cash Flow | 765 | 443 | 396 | 404 | 412 | 420 | 469 | 492 | 520 | 555 | 585 |
| % Growth | -42% | -11% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 12% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 5% | |