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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 12.0% - 11.0% | 11.5% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 6.0x - 8.0x | 7.0x |
| Fair Value | ¥617.33 - ¥1,079 | ¥843.44 |
| Upside | -39.2% - 6.2% | -17.0% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 |
| Revenue | 141,866 | 144,703 | 147,597 | 150,549 | 153,560 | 156,632 |
| % Growth | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 31,216 | 32,677 | 33,331 | 33,997 | 34,677 | 35,371 |
| % of Revenue | 22.0% | 22.6% | 22.6% | 22.6% | 22.6% | 22.6% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | |
| EBITDA | 32,677 | 33,331 | 33,997 | 34,677 | 35,371 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (13,880) | (14,157) | (14,440) | (14,729) | (15,024) | |
| EBIT | 18,797 | 19,173 | 19,557 | 19,948 | 20,347 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (3,008) | (3,068) | (3,129) | (3,192) | (3,256) | |
| NOPAT | 14,364 | 15,790 | 16,106 | 16,428 | 16,756 | 17,091 |
| Capital Expenditures | (34,556) | (26,323) | (24,300) | (28,393) | (26,339) | (26,344) |
| NWC Investment | (282) | (204) | (208) | (212) | (217) | (221) |
| (+) D&A | 14,116 | 13,880 | 14,157 | 14,440 | 14,729 | 15,024 |
| Free Cash Flow | (6,358) | 3,142 | 5,755 | 2,263 | 4,930 | 5,550 |
| % Growth | NM | 83% | -61% | 118% | 13% | |