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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 6.1x - 8.1x | 7.1x |
| Fair Value | ¥559.22 - ¥1,326 | ¥928.93 |
| Upside | -71.3% - -32.0% | -52.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 |
| Revenue | 79,868 | 103,900 | 113,600 | 117,576 | 119,928 | 122,326 | 124,773 | 127,268 | 129,813 | 132,410 | 135,058 |
| % Growth | -3.5% | 30.1% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 19,801 | 21,800 | 24,971 | 25,845 | 26,362 | 26,889 | 27,427 | 27,976 | 28,535 | 29,106 | 29,688 |
| % of Revenue | 24.8% | 21.0% | 22.0% | 22.0% | 22.0% | 22.0% | 22.0% | 22.0% | 22.0% | 22.0% | 22.0% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | |
| EBITDA | 21,800 | 24,971 | 25,845 | 26,362 | 26,889 | 27,427 | 27,976 | 28,535 | 29,106 | 29,688 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 2,891 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (2,691) | (1,071) | (1,109) | (1,131) | (1,154) | (1,177) | (1,200) | (1,224) | (1,249) | (1,274) | |
| EBIT | 22,000 | 23,900 | 24,737 | 25,231 | 25,736 | 26,251 | 26,776 | 27,311 | 27,857 | 28,414 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (7,260) | (7,887) | (8,163) | (8,326) | (8,493) | (8,663) | (8,836) | (9,013) | (9,193) | (9,377) | |
| NOPAT | 11,793 | 14,740 | 16,013 | 16,573 | 16,905 | 17,243 | 17,588 | 17,940 | 18,298 | 18,664 | 19,038 |
| Capital Expenditures | (2,457) | (6,157) | (6,732) | (6,968) | (7,107) | (7,249) | (7,108) | (7,155) | (7,171) | (7,145) | (7,157) |
| NWC Investment | 4,241 | (35,038) | (14,142) | (5,797) | (3,428) | (3,497) | (3,567) | (3,638) | (3,711) | (3,785) | (3,861) |
| (+) D&A | 2,199 | 2,691 | 1,071 | 1,109 | 1,131 | 1,154 | 1,177 | 1,200 | 1,224 | 1,249 | 1,274 |
| Free Cash Flow | 15,777 | (23,764) | (3,790) | 4,917 | 7,500 | 7,650 | 8,089 | 8,347 | 8,641 | 8,983 | 9,294 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | 53% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 3% | |