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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 3.5x - 3.9x | 3.7x |
| Fair Value | ¥22,867 - ¥25,501 | ¥24,159 |
| Upside | -0.6% - 10.9% | 5.0% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 |
| Revenue | 2,431,568 | 2,553,500 | 2,817,750 | 3,100,000 | 3,400,000 | 3,300,000 |
| % Growth | 32.8% | 5.0% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.7% | -2.9% |
| EBITDA | 759,586 | 794,476 | 919,693 | 1,042,000 | 1,095,500 | 1,121,000 |
| % of Revenue | 31.2% | 31.1% | 32.6% | 33.6% | 32.2% | 34.0% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | |
| EBITDA | 794,476 | 919,693 | 1,042,000 | 1,095,500 | 1,121,000 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (79,476) | (90,693) | (102,000) | (25,500) | (106,000) | |
| EBIT | 715,000 | 829,000 | 940,000 | 1,070,000 | 1,015,000 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (171,600) | (198,960) | (225,600) | (256,800) | (243,600) | |
| NOPAT | 529,964 | 543,400 | 630,040 | 714,400 | 813,200 | 771,400 |
| Capital Expenditures | (158,374) | (157,000) | (140,000) | (125,000) | (135,000) | (100,000) |
| NWC Investment | (169,646) | (34,416) | (74,585) | (79,666) | (84,676) | 28,225 |
| (+) D&A | 62,265 | 79,476 | 90,693 | 102,000 | 25,500 | 106,000 |
| Free Cash Flow | 264,209 | 431,461 | 506,147 | 611,734 | 619,024 | 805,625 |
| % Growth | 63% | 17% | 21% | 1% | 30% | |