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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 1.8x - 3.8x | 2.8x |
Fair Value | ¥1,788 - ¥2,127 | ¥1,954 |
Upside | 83.0% - 117.7% | 100.0% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 |
Revenue | 42,690 | 42,690 | 42,690 | 42,690 | 42,690 | 42,690 |
% Growth | -1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EBITDA | 2,715 | 2,795 | 2,795 | 2,795 | 2,795 | 2,795 |
% of Revenue | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(JPY in millions) | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | |
EBITDA | 2,795 | 2,795 | 2,795 | 2,795 | 2,795 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (345) | (345) | (345) | (345) | (345) | |
EBIT | 2,450 | 2,450 | 2,450 | 2,450 | 2,450 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (759) | (759) | (759) | (759) | (759) | |
NOPAT | 1,664 | 1,690 | 1,690 | 1,690 | 1,690 | 1,690 |
Capital Expenditures | (42) | (68) | (73) | (73) | (73) | (73) |
NWC Investment | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 304 | 345 | 345 | 345 | 345 | 345 |
Free Cash Flow | 1,971 | 1,968 | 1,962 | 1,962 | 1,962 | 1,962 |
% Growth | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |