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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.0% - 7.0% | 7.5% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 12.2x - 14.2x | 13.2x |
| Fair Value | ¥5,134 - ¥5,918 | ¥5,513 |
| Upside | 3.7% - 19.6% | 11.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 |
| Revenue | 1,050,210 | 1,235,037 | 1,261,500 | 1,342,300 | 1,426,535 | 1,453,800 | 1,482,876 | 1,512,534 | 1,542,784 | 1,573,640 | 1,605,113 |
| % Growth | 6.1% | 17.6% | 2.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 131,722 | 229,617 | 212,000 | 237,244 | 253,520 | 264,071 | 269,352 | 274,739 | 280,234 | 285,839 | 291,556 |
| % of Revenue | 12.5% | 18.6% | 16.8% | 17.7% | 17.8% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | |
| EBITDA | 229,617 | 212,000 | 237,244 | 253,520 | 264,071 | 269,352 | 274,739 | 280,234 | 285,839 | 291,556 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (43,617) | (32,971) | (45,994) | (41,038) | (53,683) | (54,757) | (55,852) | (56,969) | (58,108) | (59,270) | |
| EBIT | 186,000 | 179,029 | 191,250 | 212,482 | 210,388 | 214,596 | 218,888 | 223,265 | 227,731 | 232,285 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (53,940) | (51,918) | (55,463) | (61,620) | (61,013) | (62,233) | (63,477) | (64,747) | (66,042) | (67,363) | |
| NOPAT | 64,384 | 132,060 | 127,111 | 135,788 | 150,862 | 149,375 | 152,363 | 155,410 | 158,518 | 161,689 | 164,923 |
| Capital Expenditures | (24,699) | (40,000) | (40,000) | (40,000) | (41,600) | (48,167) | (43,256) | (44,121) | (45,003) | (44,127) | (44,417) |
| NWC Investment | (4,585) | (14,095) | (2,018) | (6,162) | (6,424) | (2,079) | (2,217) | (2,262) | (2,307) | (2,353) | (2,400) |
| (+) D&A | 41,040 | 43,617 | 32,971 | 45,994 | 41,038 | 53,683 | 54,757 | 55,852 | 56,969 | 58,108 | 59,270 |
| Free Cash Flow | 76,140 | 121,581 | 118,063 | 135,620 | 143,876 | 152,812 | 161,647 | 164,880 | 168,177 | 173,317 | 177,376 |
| % Growth | 60% | -3% | 15% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | |