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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 4.2x - 6.2x | 5.2x |
| Fair Value | ¥2,210 - ¥2,651 | ¥2,423 |
| Upside | 6.8% - 28.1% | 17.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 |
| Revenue | 106,216 | 109,934 | 112,132 | 114,375 | 116,662 | 118,996 | 121,376 | 123,803 | 126,279 | 128,805 | 131,381 |
| % Growth | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 5,179 | 5,375 | 5,483 | 5,592 | 5,704 | 5,818 | 5,935 | 6,053 | 6,174 | 6,298 | 6,424 |
| % of Revenue | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | |
| EBITDA | 5,375 | 5,483 | 5,592 | 5,704 | 5,818 | 5,935 | 6,053 | 6,174 | 6,298 | 6,424 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (967) | (986) | (1,006) | (1,026) | (1,047) | (1,068) | (1,089) | (1,111) | (1,133) | (1,156) | |
| EBIT | 4,408 | 4,496 | 4,586 | 4,678 | 4,772 | 4,867 | 4,964 | 5,064 | 5,165 | 5,268 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (1,411) | (1,439) | (1,468) | (1,497) | (1,527) | (1,557) | (1,589) | (1,620) | (1,653) | (1,686) | |
| NOPAT | 2,874 | 2,998 | 3,057 | 3,119 | 3,181 | 3,245 | 3,310 | 3,376 | 3,443 | 3,512 | 3,582 |
| Capital Expenditures | (1,433) | (1,483) | (1,513) | (1,543) | (1,574) | (1,605) | (1,574) | (1,584) | (1,588) | (1,582) | (1,585) |
| NWC Investment | (278) | (140) | (83) | (85) | (86) | (88) | (90) | (92) | (93) | (95) | (97) |
| (+) D&A | 952 | 967 | 986 | 1,006 | 1,026 | 1,047 | 1,068 | 1,089 | 1,111 | 1,133 | 1,156 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,115 | 2,341 | 2,448 | 2,497 | 2,547 | 2,598 | 2,713 | 2,789 | 2,872 | 2,967 | 3,056 |
| % Growth | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |