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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 7.7x - 9.7x | 8.7x |
| Fair Value | ¥2,716 - ¥3,065 | ¥2,884 |
| Upside | 14.3% - 29.1% | 21.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 161,716 | 161,716 | 161,716 | 161,716 | 161,716 | 161,716 | 161,716 | 161,716 | 161,716 | 161,716 | 161,716 |
| % Growth | -6.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 5,680 | 6,422 | 6,422 | 6,422 | 6,422 | 6,422 | 6,422 | 6,422 | 6,422 | 6,422 | 6,422 |
| % of Revenue | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 6,422 | 6,422 | 6,422 | 6,422 | 6,422 | 6,422 | 6,422 | 6,422 | 6,422 | 6,422 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (1,691) | (1,691) | (1,691) | (1,691) | (1,691) | (1,691) | (1,691) | (1,691) | (1,691) | (1,691) | |
| EBIT | 4,731 | 4,731 | 4,731 | 4,731 | 4,731 | 4,731 | 4,731 | 4,731 | 4,731 | 4,731 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (1,751) | (1,751) | (1,751) | (1,751) | (1,751) | (1,751) | (1,751) | (1,751) | (1,751) | (1,751) | |
| NOPAT | 2,432 | 2,981 | 2,981 | 2,981 | 2,981 | 2,981 | 2,981 | 2,981 | 2,981 | 2,981 | 2,981 |
| Capital Expenditures | (2,053) | (2,628) | (2,676) | (2,676) | (2,676) | (2,676) | (2,676) | (2,676) | (2,676) | (2,676) | (2,676) |
| NWC Investment | 1,006 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 1,820 | 1,691 | 1,691 | 1,691 | 1,691 | 1,691 | 1,691 | 1,691 | 1,691 | 1,691 | 1,691 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,205 | 2,043 | 1,996 | 1,996 | 1,996 | 1,996 | 1,996 | 1,996 | 1,996 | 1,996 | 1,996 |
| % Growth | -36% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |