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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.3% - 9.3% | 9.8% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 4.2x - 6.2x | 5.2x |
| Fair Value | ¥1,043 - ¥1,511 | ¥1,273 |
| Upside | -23.2% - 11.3% | -6.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 |
| Revenue | 301,875 | 306,000 | 320,000 | 338,000 | 325,800 | 333,300 |
| % Growth | 15.1% | 1.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | -3.6% | 2.3% |
| EBITDA | 28,027 | 24,700 | 32,400 | 32,000 | 31,700 | 30,500 |
| % of Revenue | 9.3% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | |
| EBITDA | 24,700 | 32,400 | 32,000 | 31,700 | 30,500 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (7,200) | (12,400) | (10,000) | (12,000) | (10,000) | |
| EBIT | 17,500 | 20,000 | 22,000 | 19,700 | 20,500 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (2,800) | (3,200) | (3,520) | (3,152) | (3,280) | |
| NOPAT | 16,489 | 14,700 | 16,800 | 18,480 | 16,548 | 17,220 |
| Capital Expenditures | (7,209) | (9,000) | (9,000) | (9,000) | (9,000) | (9,000) |
| NWC Investment | (6,899) | (719) | (2,441) | (3,138) | 2,127 | (1,308) |
| (+) D&A | 8,397 | 7,200 | 12,400 | 10,000 | 12,000 | 10,000 |
| Free Cash Flow | 10,778 | 12,181 | 17,759 | 16,342 | 21,675 | 16,912 |
| % Growth | 13% | 46% | -8% | 33% | -22% | |