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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.5% - 9.5% | 10.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.7x - 0.8x | 0.8x |
| Fair Value | ¥1,334 - ¥1,532 | ¥1,431 |
| Upside | 62.8% - 87.1% | 74.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 |
| Revenue | 50,309 | 52,800 | 56,000 | 58,800 | 60,858 | 62,075 |
| % Growth | -4.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 7,724 | 8,200 | 9,100 | 10,000 | 10,350 | 10,557 |
| % of Revenue | 15.4% | 15.5% | 16.3% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 17.0% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | |
| EBITDA | 8,200 | 9,100 | 10,000 | 10,350 | 10,557 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (3,500) | (3,700) | (4,000) | (4,140) | (4,223) | |
| EBIT | 4,700 | 5,400 | 6,000 | 6,210 | 6,334 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (1,034) | (1,188) | (1,320) | (1,366) | (1,394) | |
| NOPAT | 3,471 | 3,666 | 4,212 | 4,680 | 4,844 | 4,941 |
| Capital Expenditures | (2,811) | (5,100) | (4,500) | (4,250) | (4,617) | (4,709) |
| NWC Investment | 728 | (825) | (1,060) | (927) | (682) | (403) |
| (+) D&A | 3,274 | 3,500 | 3,700 | 4,000 | 4,140 | 4,223 |
| Free Cash Flow | 4,662 | 1,241 | 2,352 | 3,503 | 3,686 | 4,051 |
| % Growth | -73% | 90% | 49% | 5% | 10% | |