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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.5% - 9.5% | 10.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 2.8% - 3.8% | 3.3% |
| Fair Value | ¥946.96 - ¥1,207 | ¥1,058 |
| Upside | -0.6% - 26.7% | 11.0% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | |
| Revenue | 22,410 | 26,300 | 31,058 | 35,300 | 37,948 | 39,276 | |
| % Growth | 29.3% | 17.4% | 18.1% | 13.7% | 7.5% | 3.5% | |
| EBITDA | 4,436 | 5,909 | 7,251 | 8,128 | 9,117 | 9,436 | |
| % of Revenue | 19.8% | 22.5% | 23.3% | 23.0% | 24.0% | 24.0% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 5,909 | 7,251 | 8,128 | 9,117 | 9,436 | 9,436 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 652 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (218) | (246) | (280) | (301) | (311) | (190) | |
| EBIT | 5,692 | 7,005 | 8,500 | 8,817 | 9,125 | 9,246 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (1,935) | (2,382) | (2,890) | (2,998) | (3,103) | (3,144) | |
| NOPAT | 2,794 | 3,756 | 4,623 | 5,610 | 5,819 | 6,023 | 6,102 |
| Capital Expenditures | (35) | (458) | (133) | (161) | (200) | (200) | (200) |
| NWC Investment | (506) | (388) | (474) | (423) | (264) | (132) | (127) |
| (+) D&A | 203 | 218 | 246 | 280 | 301 | 311 | 190 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,456 | 3,128 | 4,262 | 5,306 | 5,656 | 6,001 | 5,965 |
| % Growth | 27% | 36% | 24% | 7% | 6% | -1% | |