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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1.4x - 1.5x | 1.4x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1.4x - 1.5x | 1.4x |
| Fair Value | ¥1,440 - ¥1,553 | ¥1,496 |
| Upside | 10.4% - 19.0% | 14.7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Mandom Corporation | 4917 | TSE:4917 |
| Noevir Holdings Co., Ltd. | 4928 | TSE:4928 |
| Milbon Co., Ltd. | 4919 | TSE:4919 |
| Shiseido Company, Limited | 4911 | TSE:4911 |
| KOSÉ Corporation | 4922 | TSE:4922 |
| Pola Orbis Holdings Inc. | 4927 | TSE:4927 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 4917 | 4928 | 4919 | 4911 | 4922 | 4927 | |||
| TSE:4917 | TSE:4928 | TSE:4919 | TSE:4911 | TSE:4922 | TSE:4927 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -1.5% | 1.5% | 7.2% | -2.6% | -0.6% | -5.0% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | -1.5% | 4.9% | -1.6% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.2% | 1.7% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 7.4% | -1.7% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 0.8% | 16.9% | 16.0% | 2.5% | 8.0% | 8.9% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 2.1% | 17.6% | 11.6% | 1.8% | 5.3% | 9.3% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 2.8% | 17.9% | 13.3% | -1.0% | 5.4% | 8.1% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 1.5% | 17.3% | 13.3% | -1.0% | 5.4% | 8.1% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.38x | 1.79x | 1.40x | 1.13x | 0.68x | 1.22x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 24.9x | 10.4x | 10.5x | -116.9x | 12.7x | 15.0x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.80x | 2.20x | 1.72x | 0.96x | 1.07x | 1.69x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.38x | 1.13x | 1.79x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 1.22x | 1.74x | 1.99x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.36x | 1.43x | 1.50x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 170,359 | 170,359 | 170,359 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 231,793 | 243,993 | 256,193 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 81,443 | 81,443 | 81,443 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 313,236 | 325,436 | 337,636 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 221.3 | 221.3 | 221.3 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 1,415.65 | 1,470.78 | 1,525.92 | |||||
| FX Rate: JPY/JPY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1,415.65 | 1,470.78 | 1,525.92 | 1,304.50 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 8.5% | 12.7% | 17.0% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 4917 | 4928 | 4919 | 4911 | 4922 | 4927 | |
| Enterprise Value | 29,665 | 114,791 | 71,272 | 1,114,327 | 226,503 | 207,200 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 28,983 | 23,270 | 13,829 | 98,479 | 113,970 | 64,083 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 9,316 | 4,164 | 3,012 | 112,572 | 39,632 | 19,498 | |
| (-) Debt | (89) | (806) | 0 | (363,160) | (11,222) | (2,115) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (6,443) | (525) | 0 | (22,169) | (18,334) | (23) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 61,432 | 140,894 | 88,113 | 940,049 | 350,549 | 288,643 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 45.1 | 34.2 | 32.6 | 399.4 | 57.1 | 221.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1,361.00 | 4,125.00 | 2,706.00 | 2,353.50 | 6,143.00 | 1,304.50 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,361.00 | 4,125.00 | 2,706.00 | 2,353.50 | 6,143.00 | 1,304.50 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |