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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.4x - 1.6x | 1.5x |
| Fair Value | ¥1,452 - ¥1,595 | ¥1,522 |
| Upside | 21.0% - 32.9% | 26.9% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 170,359 | 173,500 | 178,400 | 184,500 | 191,930 | 203,155 |
| % Growth | -1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.8% |
| EBITDA | 22,163 | 23,416 | 25,902 | 27,999 | 26,850 | 30,452 |
| % of Revenue | 13.0% | 13.5% | 14.5% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 15.0% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 23,416 | 25,902 | 27,999 | 26,850 | 30,452 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (8,416) | (8,898) | (8,801) | (6,625) | (5,952) | |
| EBIT | 15,000 | 17,004 | 19,199 | 20,225 | 24,500 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (4,800) | (5,441) | (6,144) | (6,472) | (7,840) | |
| NOPAT | 9,391 | 10,200 | 11,563 | 13,055 | 13,753 | 16,660 |
| Capital Expenditures | (8,172) | (10,500) | (10,500) | (10,500) | (10,750) | (11,000) |
| NWC Investment | 254 | (271) | (423) | (526) | (641) | (969) |
| (+) D&A | 8,352 | 8,416 | 8,898 | 8,801 | 6,625 | 5,952 |
| Free Cash Flow | 9,826 | 7,844 | 9,538 | 10,829 | 8,987 | 10,643 |
| % Growth | -20% | 22% | 14% | -17% | 18% | |