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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 5.3x - 7.3x | 6.3x |
| Fair Value | ¥3,367 - ¥3,832 | ¥3,595 |
| Upside | 18.6% - 35.0% | 26.7% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 103,600 | 109,093 | 99,783 | 98,581 | 98,581 | 98,581 |
| % Growth | -17.3% | 5.3% | -8.5% | -1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 18,443 | 18,211 | 15,670 | 15,379 | 15,379 | 15,379 |
| % of Revenue | 17.8% | 16.7% | 15.7% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 15.6% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 18,211 | 15,670 | 15,379 | 15,379 | 15,379 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (951) | (1,558) | (2,164) | (2,164) | (2,164) | |
| EBIT | 17,260 | 14,111 | 13,215 | 13,215 | 13,215 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (4,660) | (3,810) | (3,568) | (3,568) | (3,568) | |
| NOPAT | 12,769 | 12,600 | 10,301 | 9,647 | 9,647 | 9,647 |
| Capital Expenditures | (243) | (597) | (603) | (609) | (951) | (951) |
| NWC Investment | (381) | 96 | (163) | (21) | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 951 | 951 | 1,558 | 2,164 | 2,164 | 2,164 |
| Free Cash Flow | 13,096 | 13,050 | 11,093 | 11,180 | 10,860 | 10,860 |
| % Growth | 0% | -15% | 1% | -3% | 0% | |