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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.7x - 0.7x | 0.7x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.6x - 0.6x | 0.6x |
| Fair Value | ¥425.27 - ¥448.69 | ¥436.98 |
| Upside | -26.8% - -22.8% | -24.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| DeNA Co., Ltd. | 2432 | TSE:2432 |
| GungHo Online Entertainment, Inc. | 3765 | TSE:3765 |
| COLOPL, Inc. | 3668 | TSE:3668 |
| MIXI, Inc. | 2121 | TSE:2121 |
| Koei Tecmo Holdings Co., Ltd. | 3635 | TSE:3635 |
| GREE Holdings, Inc. | 3632 | TSE:3632 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 2432 | 3765 | 3668 | 2121 | 3635 | 3632 | |||
| TSE:2432 | TSE:3765 | TSE:3668 | TSE:2121 | TSE:3635 | TSE:3632 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 2.0% | 0.4% | -7.8% | 0.4% | 16.8% | -2.9% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | -0.1% | -0.3% | -11.2% | 7.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.5% | -17.3% | -12.9% | 3.2% | -15.6% | -17.3% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 8.0% | 26.0% | 12.9% | 16.0% | 41.3% | 11.2% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 3.7% | 22.2% | 8.6% | 16.9% | 49.9% | 16.6% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 0.5% | 16.9% | -4.6% | 13.1% | 33.7% | 9.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 29.7% | 16.9% | -6.3% | 17.0% | 30.6% | 10.1% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.25x | 0.86x | 0.23x | 0.88x | 6.44x | 0.71x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 7.6x | 5.1x | -3.6x | 5.2x | 21.1x | 7.0x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 2.75x | 1.62x | 2.52x | 1.53x | 8.79x | 1.66x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.23x | 0.88x | 6.44x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | -0.08x | 0.40x | 1.35x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.65x | 0.69x | 0.72x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 59,802 | 59,802 | 59,802 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 38,955 | 41,006 | 43,056 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 34,729 | 34,729 | 34,729 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 73,684 | 75,735 | 77,785 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 171.3 | 171.3 | 171.3 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 430.24 | 442.21 | 454.19 | |||||
| FX Rate: JPY/JPY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 430.24 | 442.21 | 454.19 | 581.00 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -25.9% | -23.9% | -21.8% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 2432 | 3765 | 3668 | 2121 | 3635 | 3632 | |
| Enterprise Value | 338,795 | 88,573 | 6,110 | 134,969 | 485,009 | 64,774 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 73,677 | 104,616 | 59,598 | 103,233 | 35,947 | 39,811 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 57,351 | 0 | 0 | 9,393 | 151,618 | 11,707 | |
| (-) Debt | (46,584) | (1,277) | (833) | (13,584) | (9,000) | (16,700) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (9,952) | (24,759) | (7) | (1,444) | 0 | (89) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 413,287 | 167,153 | 64,868 | 232,567 | 663,574 | 99,503 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 111.4 | 55.8 | 128.5 | 67.8 | 315.8 | 171.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 3,711.00 | 2,994.50 | 505.00 | 3,430.00 | 2,101.00 | 581.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3,711.00 | 2,994.50 | 505.00 | 3,430.00 | 2,101.00 | 581.00 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |