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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.0% - 7.0% | 7.5% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 5.3x - 7.3x | 6.3x |
Fair Value | ¥3,377 - ¥4,169 | ¥3,765 |
Upside | 18.5% - 46.3% | 32.1% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Nov-24 | Nov-25 | Nov-26 | Nov-27 | Nov-28 | Nov-29 |
Revenue | 483,985 | 504,900 | 522,200 | 539,800 | 551,300 | 567,500 |
% Growth | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% |
EBITDA | 51,842 | 52,700 | 56,800 | 60,900 | 63,250 | 66,750 |
% of Revenue | 10.7% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.8% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(JPY in millions) | Nov-25 | Nov-26 | Nov-27 | Nov-28 | Nov-29 | |
EBITDA | 52,700 | 56,800 | 60,900 | 63,250 | 66,750 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (18,200) | (18,800) | (19,500) | (19,250) | (19,750) | |
EBIT | 34,500 | 38,000 | 41,400 | 44,000 | 47,000 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (10,695) | (11,780) | (12,834) | (13,640) | (14,570) | |
NOPAT | 23,546 | 23,805 | 26,220 | 28,566 | 30,360 | 32,430 |
Capital Expenditures | (18,124) | (19,050) | (21,000) | (26,500) | (27,500) | (22,500) |
NWC Investment | (2,139) | (1,548) | (1,280) | (1,303) | (851) | (1,199) |
(+) D&A | 17,718 | 18,200 | 18,800 | 19,500 | 19,250 | 19,750 |
Free Cash Flow | 21,001 | 21,407 | 22,740 | 20,263 | 21,259 | 28,481 |
% Growth | 2% | 6% | -11% | 5% | 34% |