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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.4x - 0.4x | 0.4x |
| Fair Value | ¥3,268 - ¥3,959 | ¥3,602 |
| Upside | -20.6% - -3.8% | -12.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 |
| Revenue | 955,580 | 989,600 | 999,000 | 1,007,000 | 990,000 | 990,000 | 990,000 | 990,000 | 990,000 | 990,000 | 990,000 |
| % Growth | 3.6% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | -1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 36,427 | 32,000 | 34,900 | 36,600 | 35,982 | 35,982 | 35,982 | 35,982 | 35,982 | 35,982 | 35,982 |
| % of Revenue | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 32,000 | 34,900 | 36,600 | 35,982 | 35,982 | 35,982 | 35,982 | 35,982 | 35,982 | 35,982 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (12,400) | (13,300) | (14,200) | (9,982) | (9,982) | (9,982) | (9,982) | (9,982) | (9,982) | (9,982) | |
| EBIT | 19,600 | 21,600 | 22,400 | 26,000 | 26,000 | 26,000 | 26,000 | 26,000 | 26,000 | 26,000 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (6,272) | (6,912) | (7,168) | (8,320) | (8,320) | (8,320) | (8,320) | (8,320) | (8,320) | (8,320) | |
| NOPAT | 15,189 | 13,328 | 14,688 | 15,232 | 17,680 | 17,680 | 17,680 | 17,680 | 17,680 | 17,680 | 17,680 |
| Capital Expenditures | (14,472) | (20,200) | (27,500) | (27,500) | (20,000) | (25,000) | (24,167) | (23,056) | (23,056) | (23,056) | (23,056) |
| NWC Investment | (5,049) | (5,221) | (1,443) | (1,228) | 2,609 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 14,090 | 12,400 | 13,300 | 14,200 | 9,982 | 9,982 | 9,982 | 9,982 | 9,982 | 9,982 | 9,982 |
| Free Cash Flow | 9,759 | 307 | (955) | 704 | 10,271 | 2,662 | 3,495 | 4,607 | 4,607 | 4,607 | 4,607 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | 1358% | -74% | 31% | 32% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||