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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.0% - 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Fair Value | ¥4,949 - ¥5,563 | ¥5,162 |
| Upside | 45.6% - 63.6% | 51.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | |
| Revenue | 146,868 | 153,000 | 152,000 | 157,455 | 160,604 | 163,816 | 167,093 | 170,434 | 173,843 | 177,320 | 180,866 | |
| % Growth | 0.0% | 4.2% | -0.7% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 23,496 | 31,860 | 32,500 | 33,030 | 33,691 | 34,364 | 35,052 | 35,753 | 36,468 | 37,197 | 37,941 | |
| % of Revenue | 16.0% | 20.8% | 21.4% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 31,860 | 32,500 | 33,030 | 33,691 | 34,364 | 35,052 | 35,753 | 36,468 | 37,197 | 37,941 | 37,941 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (5,360) | (5,500) | (4,940) | (5,039) | (5,140) | (5,242) | (5,347) | (5,454) | (5,563) | (5,675) | (4,517) | |
| EBIT | 26,500 | 27,000 | 28,090 | 28,652 | 29,225 | 29,809 | 30,406 | 31,014 | 31,634 | 32,267 | 33,424 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (10,335) | (10,530) | (10,955) | (11,174) | (11,398) | (11,626) | (11,858) | (12,095) | (12,337) | (12,584) | (13,035) | |
| NOPAT | 11,699 | 16,165 | 16,470 | 17,135 | 17,478 | 17,827 | 18,184 | 18,547 | 18,918 | 19,297 | 19,683 | 20,389 |
| Capital Expenditures | (2,993) | (3,650) | (3,720) | (3,815) | (4,990) | (5,090) | (4,632) | (4,724) | (4,815) | (4,724) | (4,754) | (4,754) |
| NWC Investment | (0) | (1,293) | 211 | (1,150) | (664) | (677) | (691) | (705) | (719) | (733) | (748) | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 4,318 | 5,360 | 5,500 | 4,940 | 5,039 | 5,140 | 5,242 | 5,347 | 5,454 | 5,563 | 5,675 | 4,517 |
| Free Cash Flow | 13,023 | 16,582 | 18,461 | 17,110 | 16,862 | 17,200 | 18,104 | 18,466 | 18,839 | 19,403 | 19,855 | 20,151 |
| % Growth | 27% | 11% | -7% | -1% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | |