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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.0% - 9.0% | 9.5% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 2.4x - 4.4x | 3.4x |
Fair Value | NT$ 21.50 - NT$ 45.56 | NT$ 33.30 |
Upside | -32.4% - 43.3% | 4.7% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(TWD in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 37,563 | 35,339 | 34,171 | 88,749 | 93,187 | 95,982 |
% Growth | -9.0% | -5.9% | -3.3% | 159.7% | 5.0% | 3.0% |
EBITDA | -5 | 995 | 1,161 | 3,061 | 3,214 | 3,343 |
% of Revenue | 0.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(TWD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 995 | 1,161 | 3,061 | 3,214 | 3,343 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (1,257) | (1,365) | (1,348) | (1,416) | (1,458) | |
EBIT | (262) | (204) | 1,713 | 1,798 | 1,885 | |
Pro forma Taxes | 0 | 0 | (463) | (485) | (509) | |
NOPAT | (258) | (262) | (204) | 1,250 | 1,313 | 1,376 |
Capital Expenditures | (577) | (450) | (450) | (813) | (853) | (879) |
NWC Investment | 40 | 24 | 13 | (589) | (48) | (30) |
(+) D&A | 349 | 1,257 | 1,365 | 1,348 | 1,416 | 1,458 |
Free Cash Flow | (447) | 569 | 724 | 1,197 | 1,828 | 1,925 |
% Growth | NM | 27% | 65% | 53% | 5% |