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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.3% - 9.3% | 9.8% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.4x - 0.5x | 0.4x |
Fair Value | NT$ 44.58 - NT$ 48.25 | NT$ 46.38 |
Upside | 52.1% - 64.7% | 58.3% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(TWD in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 672 | 1,295 | 1,554 | 1,748 | 1,879 | 1,945 |
% Growth | -30.0% | 92.8% | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% |
EBITDA | 36 | 175 | 287 | 367 | 413 | 428 |
% of Revenue | 5.3% | 13.5% | 18.5% | 21.0% | 22.0% | 22.0% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(TWD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 175 | 287 | 367 | 413 | 428 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (9) | (10) | (12) | (12) | (13) | |
EBIT | 166 | 277 | 355 | 401 | 415 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (32) | (53) | (67) | (76) | (79) | |
NOPAT | 22 | 134 | 224 | 288 | 324 | 336 |
Capital Expenditures | (36) | (27) | (33) | (37) | (39) | (41) |
NWC Investment | 64 | (139) | (58) | (43) | (29) | (15) |
(+) D&A | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 |
Free Cash Flow | 59 | (23) | 144 | 219 | 268 | 293 |
% Growth | NM | NM | 52% | 22% | 9% |