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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.3% - 9.3% | 9.8% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 15.4x - 17.4x | 16.4x |
Fair Value | NT$ 47.16 - NT$ 54.10 | NT$ 50.51 |
Upside | -4.0% - 10.1% | 2.8% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(TWD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 1,196 | 1,196 | 1,196 | 1,196 | 1,196 | 1,196 | 1,196 | 1,196 | 1,196 | 1,196 | 1,196 |
% Growth | -0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EBITDA | 282 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 |
% of Revenue | 23.5% | 21.7% | 21.7% | 21.7% | 21.7% | 21.7% | 21.7% | 21.7% | 21.7% | 21.7% | 21.7% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(TWD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) | (70) | |
EBIT | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | 190 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (38) | (38) | (38) | (38) | (38) | (38) | (38) | (38) | (38) | (38) | |
NOPAT | 168 | 152 | 152 | 152 | 152 | 152 | 152 | 152 | 152 | 152 | 152 |
Capital Expenditures | (41) | (53) | (53) | (53) | (53) | (53) | (53) | (53) | (53) | (53) | (53) |
NWC Investment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 72 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 | 70 |
Free Cash Flow | 199 | 169 | 169 | 169 | 169 | 169 | 169 | 169 | 169 | 169 | 169 |
% Growth | -15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |