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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.3% - 9.3% | 9.8% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 9.3x - 11.3x | 10.3x |
Fair Value | NT$ 182.84 - NT$ 208.75 | NT$ 195.34 |
Upside | 24.4% - 42.0% | 32.9% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(TWD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 3,473 | 3,900 | 4,193 | 4,339 | 4,426 | 4,515 | 4,605 | 4,697 | 4,791 | 4,887 | 4,984 |
% Growth | 15.6% | 12.3% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 1,188 | 1,320 | 1,461 | 1,512 | 1,542 | 1,573 | 1,605 | 1,637 | 1,670 | 1,703 | 1,737 |
% of Revenue | 34.2% | 33.8% | 34.8% | 34.8% | 34.8% | 34.8% | 34.8% | 34.8% | 34.8% | 34.8% | 34.8% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(TWD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 1,320 | 1,461 | 1,512 | 1,542 | 1,573 | 1,605 | 1,637 | 1,670 | 1,703 | 1,737 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (102) | (110) | (114) | (116) | (118) | (121) | (123) | (125) | (128) | (131) | |
EBIT | 1,218 | 1,351 | 1,399 | 1,427 | 1,455 | 1,484 | 1,514 | 1,544 | 1,575 | 1,607 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (244) | (270) | (280) | (285) | (291) | (297) | (303) | (309) | (315) | (321) | |
NOPAT | 846 | 974 | 1,081 | 1,119 | 1,141 | 1,164 | 1,187 | 1,211 | 1,235 | 1,260 | 1,285 |
Capital Expenditures | (112) | (90) | (141) | (146) | (149) | (152) | (149) | (150) | (150) | (150) | (150) |
NWC Investment | (83) | (76) | (52) | (26) | (15) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (17) | (17) | (17) |
(+) D&A | 131 | 102 | 110 | 114 | 116 | 118 | 121 | 123 | 125 | 128 | 131 |
Free Cash Flow | 780 | 911 | 998 | 1,060 | 1,093 | 1,115 | 1,143 | 1,168 | 1,194 | 1,221 | 1,248 |
% Growth | 17% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |