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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 25.8x - 28.5x | 27.1x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 21.1x - 23.3x | 22.2x |
| Fair Value | ฿36.68 - ฿41.42 | ฿39.05 |
| Upside | -24.8% - -15.0% | -19.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| TPC Power Holding Public Company Limited | TPCH | SET:TPCH |
| Electricity Generating Public Company Limited | EGCO | SET:EGCO |
| B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited | BGRIM | SET:BGRIM |
| Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited | GPSC | SET:GPSC |
| Ratch Group Public Company Limited | RATCH | SET:RATCH |
| Gulf Development Public Company Limited | GULF-F | THAMSE:GULF-F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| TPCH | EGCO | BGRIM | GPSC | RATCH | GULF-F | ||
| SET:TPCH | SET:EGCO | SET:BGRIM | SET:GPSC | SET:RATCH | THAMSE:GULF-F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 0.5% | -1.8% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 14.5% | 25.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 0.8% | -1.4% | 3.9% | -2.2% | 21.3% | 17.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 6.1% | 683.2% | -0.2% | 7.6% | -7.6% | 12.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 34.3% | 17.0% | 23.0% | 20.6% | 8.9% | 25.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 29.1% | -1.8% | 22.6% | 18.6% | 11.7% | 20.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 34.5% | 20.9% | 23.9% | 20.6% | 15.4% | 20.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 34.3% | 23.4% | 23.8% | 21.2% | 17.2% | 22.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.90x | 0.62x | 2.41x | 1.71x | 1.99x | 6.37x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.5x | 2.7x | 10.1x | 8.1x | 11.6x | 28.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.1x | 4.0x | 16.8x | 16.4x | 73.8x | 35.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.7x | 8.1x | 11.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 25.5x | 35.7x | 54.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 25.8x | 27.1x | 28.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 26,493 | 26,493 | 26,493 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 683,010 | 718,957 | 754,905 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (125,593) | (125,593) | (125,593) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 557,416 | 593,364 | 629,312 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 14,939.8 | 14,939.8 | 14,939.8 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 37.31 | 39.72 | 42.12 | ||||
| FX Rate: THB/THB | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 37.31 | 39.72 | 42.12 | 48.75 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -23.5% | -18.5% | -13.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | TPCH | EGCO | BGRIM | GPSC | RATCH | GULF-F | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,465 | 24,313 | 133,318 | 148,887 | 54,223 | 853,910 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 97 | 49,816 | 22,648 | 20,483 | 15,981 | 46,234 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 814 | 100,513 | 7,319 | 53,745 | 87,992 | 198,601 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,674) | (118,315) | (118,257) | (125,402) | (94,289) | (340,544) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (547) | (258) | (15,830) | (11,711) | (8,988) | (29,884) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,155 | 56,069 | 29,197 | 86,002 | 54,919 | 728,317 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 401.2 | 526.5 | 2,606.9 | 2,819.7 | 2,175.0 | 14,939.8 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2.88 | 106.50 | 11.20 | 30.50 | 25.25 | 48.75 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2.88 | 106.50 | 11.20 | 30.50 | 25.25 | 48.75 | |
| Trading Currency | THB | THB | THB | THB | THB | THB | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |