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Av Gad Holdings Ltd

TASE:AVGD

Israel / Consumer Discretionary / Household Durables

10Y DCF Growth Exit

Stock Price

19.33 ILS

Fair Value

12.56 ILS

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	9.0% - 8.0%	8.5%
Perpetuity Growth Rate	0.2% - 1.3%	0.8%
Fair Value	₪10.45 - ₪15.28	₪12.56
Upside	-46.0% - -21.0%	-35.0%

8.4%

Revenue 10y CAGR

17.6%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

NM

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Gordon Growth Exit

Stock Price

19.33 ILS

Fair Value

12.56 ILS

Upside

-35.0%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(ILS in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	166	224	269	303	325	337	343	350	357	364	372
% Growth	58.3%	35.0%	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%	3.5%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%

EBITDA	6	23	41	54	62	64	65	66	68	69	70
% of Revenue	3.7%	10.4%	15.4%	17.9%	18.9%	18.9%	18.9%	18.9%	18.9%	18.9%	18.9%

Supporting Calculations

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(ILS in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34	Terminal

EBITDA		23	41	54	62	64	65	66	68	69	70	70
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(1)	(10)

EBIT		23	41	53	61	63	64	65	67	68	69	60
Pro forma Taxes		(6)	(10)	(13)	(15)	(16)	(16)	(16)	(17)	(17)	(17)	(15)
NOPAT	4	17	31	40	45	47	48	49	50	51	52	45

Capital Expenditures	(2)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(11)	(11)	(11)	(11)	(11)	(11)	(11)
NWC Investment	(43)	(40)	(31)	(23)	(16)	(8)	(5)	(5)	(5)	(5)	(5)	(2)
(+) D&A	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	10

Free Cash Flow	(40)	(30)	(9)	7	20	29	33	34	35	36	37	42
% Growth		NM	NM	NM	169%	46%	16%	2%	3%	3%	2%	15%

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