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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 4.7x - 6.7x | 5.7x |
| Fair Value | ¥14.14 - ¥17.11 | ¥15.60 |
| Upside | -1.6% - 19.1% | 8.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 3,349 | 4,759 | 4,728 | 5,755 | 6,474 | 6,960 |
| % Growth | -28.2% | 42.1% | -0.6% | 21.7% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| EBITDA | 311 | 545 | 614 | 757 | 1,014 | 1,159 |
| % of Revenue | 9.3% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 13.2% | 15.7% | 16.7% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 545 | 614 | 757 | 1,014 | 1,159 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (21) | (21) | (42) | (47) | (50) | |
| EBIT | 524 | 616 | 716 | 967 | 1,109 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (79) | (92) | (107) | (145) | (166) | |
| NOPAT | 224 | 446 | 523 | 608 | 822 | 943 |
| Capital Expenditures | (57) | (144) | (47) | (47) | (33) | (30) |
| NWC Investment | 407 | (437) | 10 | (318) | (223) | (150) |
| (+) D&A | 47 | 21 | 21 | 42 | 47 | 50 |
| Free Cash Flow | 622 | (114) | 507 | 285 | 613 | 813 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | -44% | 115% | 33% | |