Looks like there`s been an error while trying to load this page.
Our team has been notified but please contact us using the email support widget if the problem persists.
| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.3% - 9.3% | 9.8% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 6.7% - 7.8% | 7.2% |
| Fair Value | ¥20.20 - ¥40.75 | ¥26.38 |
| Upside | -54.5% - -8.1% | -40.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | |
| Revenue | 1,756 | 1,996 | 2,317 | 2,680 | 3,015 | 3,241 | 3,355 | 3,422 | 3,490 | 3,560 | 3,631 | |
| % Growth | 56.0% | 13.7% | 16.1% | 15.7% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 147 | 177 | 216 | 266 | 375 | 435 | 450 | 459 | 469 | 478 | 487 | |
| % of Revenue | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 177 | 216 | 266 | 375 | 435 | 450 | 459 | 469 | 478 | 487 | 487 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (8) | (20) | (31) | (35) | (37) | (39) | (40) | (40) | (41) | (42) | (216) | |
| EBIT | 169 | 196 | 235 | 340 | 398 | 412 | 420 | 428 | 437 | 445 | 271 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (17) | (20) | (24) | (34) | (40) | (41) | (42) | (43) | (44) | (45) | (27) | |
| NOPAT | 102 | 152 | 176 | 212 | 306 | 358 | 370 | 378 | 385 | 393 | 401 | 244 |
| Capital Expenditures | (108) | (200) | (200) | (200) | (225) | (242) | (222) | (227) | (230) | (226) | (228) | (228) |
| NWC Investment | (163) | (62) | (83) | (94) | (87) | (58) | (29) | (17) | (18) | (18) | (18) | (68) |
| (+) D&A | 34 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 35 | 37 | 39 | 40 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 216 |
| Free Cash Flow | (135) | (102) | (87) | (51) | 29 | 95 | 158 | 173 | 178 | 190 | 197 | 165 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | NM | 227% | 66% | 10% | 3% | 7% | 4% | -16% | |