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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 24.2x - 26.7x | 25.4x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 18.5x - 20.4x | 19.4x |
Fair Value | ¥29.14 - ¥31.76 | ¥30.45 |
Upside | -14.8% - -7.1% | -10.9% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Shandong Homey Aquatic Development Co.,Ltd. | 600467 | SHSE:600467 |
Ligao Foods Co.,Ltd. | 300973 | SZSE:300973 |
Yihai International Holding Ltd. | 1579 | SEHK:1579 |
Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited | 603477 | SHSE:603477 |
Jiangsu Chinagreen Biological Technology Group Co., Ltd. | 300970 | SZSE:300970 |
Panda Dairy Corporation | 300898 | SZSE:300898 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
600467 | 300973 | 1579 | 603477 | 300970 | 300898 | ||
SHSE:600467 | SZSE:300973 | SEHK:1579 | SHSE:603477 | SZSE:300970 | SZSE:300898 | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 2.3% | 17.1% | 2.6% | 73.0% | NM- | 2.2% | |
3Y CAGR | 8.4% | -14.7% | 1.6% | 25.5% | -10.0% | 12.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | -23.4% | -21.6% | -5.5% | 1237.3% | -71.7% | 9.2% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 28.1% | 11.2% | 21.7% | 13.2% | 18.1% | 12.9% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 34.6% | 8.2% | 21.5% | -2.5% | 20.2% | 8.4% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 26.2% | 5.6% | 19.1% | 18.9% | 14.6% | 13.7% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 23.2% | 7.5% | 19.1% | 18.9% | 5.3% | 16.0% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 3.82x | 1.99x | 1.49x | 2.31x | 2.04x | 4.62x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 16.5x | 26.6x | 7.8x | 12.2x | 38.2x | 28.9x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 43.8x | 51.4x | 8.8x | 18.6x | -24.9x | 35.5x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.8x | 16.5x | 38.2x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 22.9x | 33.4x | 64.9x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 24.2x | 25.4x | 26.7x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 129 | 129 | 129 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,117 | 3,281 | 3,445 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 523 | 523 | 523 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 3,640 | 3,804 | 3,968 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 124.0 | 124.0 | 124.0 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 29.35 | 30.68 | 32.00 | ||||
FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 29.35 | 30.68 | 32.00 | 34.19 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -14.1% | -10.3% | -6.4% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 600467 | 300973 | 1579 | 603477 | 300970 | 300898 | |
Enterprise Value | 5,599 | 7,183 | 9,357 | 15,065 | 1,997 | 3,717 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 400 | 1,088 | 2,127 | 578 | 337 | 544 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 186 | 42 | 461 | 24 | 0 | 10 | |
(-) Debt | (2,723) | (1,039) | (94) | (3,846) | (600) | (21) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (14) | (14) | (164) | (38) | (25) | (10) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 3,448 | 7,260 | 11,688 | 11,783 | 1,709 | 4,240 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,461.0 | 167.9 | 970.1 | 510.1 | 117.9 | 124.0 | |
Implied Stock Price | 2.36 | 43.24 | 12.05 | 23.10 | 14.50 | 34.19 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2.36 | 43.24 | 12.72 | 23.10 | 14.50 | 34.19 | |
Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | HKD | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |