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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 3.8% - 4.8% | 4.3% |
| Fair Value | ¥10.27 - ¥14.21 | ¥11.82 |
| Upside | -5.2% - 31.2% | 9.2% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| Revenue | 297 | 365 | 438 | 493 | 530 | 548 | |
| % Growth | 32.3% | 22.7% | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | |
| EBITDA | 83 | 108 | 152 | 183 | 202 | 209 | |
| % of Revenue | 27.9% | 29.6% | 34.6% | 37.1% | 38.1% | 38.1% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 108 | 152 | 183 | 202 | 209 | 209 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (23) | (28) | (31) | (34) | (35) | (44) | |
| EBIT | 85 | 124 | 152 | 168 | 174 | 166 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (11) | (16) | (20) | (22) | (23) | (22) | |
| NOPAT | 57 | 74 | 108 | 132 | 146 | 152 | 144 |
| Capital Expenditures | (9) | (30) | (37) | (41) | (44) | (46) | (46) |
| NWC Investment | (25) | (23) | (25) | (19) | (13) | (6) | (8) |
| (+) D&A | 18 | 23 | 28 | 31 | 34 | 35 | 44 |
| Free Cash Flow | 40 | 43 | 74 | 103 | 123 | 134 | 134 |
| % Growth | 7% | 71% | 40% | 19% | 9% | 0% | |