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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 8.7x - 9.6x | 9.2x |
| Fair Value | ¥19.61 - ¥22.49 | ¥21.03 |
| Upside | -43.9% - -35.6% | -39.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 |
| Revenue | 220 | 220 | 220 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
| % Growth | -33.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | -55 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| % of Revenue | -25.2% | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | |
| EBITDA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | #NUM! | #NUM! | #NUM! | #NUM! | #NUM! | |
| D&A | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| EBIT | #NUM! | #NUM! | #NUM! | #NUM! | #NUM! | |
| Pro forma Taxes | #NUM! | #NUM! | #NUM! | #NUM! | #NUM! | |
| NOPAT | (51) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Capital Expenditures | (12) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) |
| NWC Investment | 129 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Free Cash Flow | 76 | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | |