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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.5% - 9.5% | 10.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 7.8x - 9.8x | 8.8x |
| Fair Value | ¥35.10 - ¥42.90 | ¥38.93 |
| Upside | 18.5% - 44.8% | 31.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 3,036 | 3,943 | 5,031 | 6,212 | 6,988 | 7,512 |
| % Growth | 14.5% | 29.9% | 27.6% | 23.5% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| EBITDA | 491 | 716 | 886 | 1,068 | 1,376 | 1,555 |
| % of Revenue | 16.2% | 18.1% | 17.6% | 17.2% | 19.7% | 20.7% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 716 | 886 | 1,068 | 1,376 | 1,555 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (91) | (82) | (83) | (93) | (100) | |
| EBIT | 625 | 804 | 985 | 1,283 | 1,455 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (63) | (80) | (99) | (128) | (145) | |
| NOPAT | 405 | 563 | 724 | 887 | 1,155 | 1,309 |
| Capital Expenditures | (147) | (200) | (200) | (213) | (74) | (74) |
| NWC Investment | (50) | (118) | (142) | (154) | (101) | (68) |
| (+) D&A | 41 | 91 | 82 | 83 | 93 | 100 |
| Free Cash Flow | 248 | 335 | 463 | 603 | 1,073 | 1,267 |
| % Growth | 35% | 38% | 30% | 78% | 18% | |