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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 11.5% - 10.5% | 11.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 3.0x - 3.3x | 3.2x |
| Fair Value | ¥10.32 - ¥12.40 | ¥11.35 |
| Upside | -32.5% - -18.9% | -25.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 |
| Revenue | 1,169 | 1,877 | 2,371 | 2,845 | 3,201 | 3,441 |
| % Growth | -0.6% | 60.5% | 26.3% | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| EBITDA | -64 | 229 | 289 | 489 | 630 | 712 |
| % of Revenue | -5.4% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 17.2% | 19.7% | 20.7% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | |
| EBITDA | 229 | 289 | 489 | 630 | 712 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (122) | (83) | (100) | (112) | (120) | |
| EBIT | 107 | 206 | 389 | 518 | 591 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (14) | (27) | (51) | (67) | (77) | |
| NOPAT | (63) | 93 | 179 | 339 | 451 | 515 |
| Capital Expenditures | (106) | (23) | (22) | (50) | (57) | (61) |
| NWC Investment | 8 | (845) | (590) | (567) | (425) | (287) |
| (+) D&A | 9 | 122 | 83 | 100 | 112 | 120 |
| Free Cash Flow | (152) | (653) | (350) | (178) | 81 | 287 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | NM | 253% | |