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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 5.8% - 6.3% | 6.0% |
| Discount Rate | 10.6% - 9.6% | 10.1% |
| Fair Value | ¥57.53 - ¥81.94 | ¥67.51 |
| Upside | 32.3% - 88.5% | 55.3% |
| Project Adjusted Dividends | ||||||||
| Fiscal Year Ending | ||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Terminal | |
| Net Income to Common | 45 | 795 | 1,122 | 1,550 | 1,965 | 2,208 | 2,208 | |
| % Growth | -90.2% | 1660.4% | 41.1% | 38.1% | 26.8% | 12.4% | ||
| Payout Ratio | 188.8% | 90.0% | 90.0% | 90.0% | 90.0% | 90.0% | 92.5% | |
| Projected Dividends | 85 | 716 | 1,010 | 1,395 | 1,769 | 1,987 | 2,042 | |
| % Growth | 739.0% | 41.1% | 38.1% | 26.8% | 12.4% | |||
| Historical Performance | ||||||||
| Fiscal Year Ending | YTD | YTD | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-19 | Dec-20 | Dec-21 | Dec-22 | Dec-23 | Sep-23 | Sep-24 | |
| Cash Dividends Paid | 16 | 3 | 36 | 65 | 85 | 83 | 91 | |
| % Growth | -84% | 1291% | 81% | 31% | 10% | |||
| Net Income to Common | 12 | 85 | 218 | 461 | 45 | 1 | 357 | |
| % Growth | 611% | 157% | 111% | -90% | 26859% | |||
| Payout Ratio | 133% | 3% | 17% | 14% | 189% | 6263% | 26% | |
| Retention Ratio | -33% | 97% | 83% | 86% | -89% | -6163% | 74% | |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 3 | 55 | 218 | 444 | (13) | (23) | 508 | |
| % Growth | 1546% | 297% | 104% | NM | NM | |||
| Total Debt | 35 | 144 | 71 | 300 | 1,090 | 938 | 1,098 | |
| Shareholder's Equity | 997 | 1,091 | 1,768 | 2,277 | 2,879 | 2,836 | 3,297 | |
| Debt / EBITDA | 10.5 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.7 | (86.3) | 2.1 | ||
| Debt / Equity | 4% | 13% | 4% | 13% | 38% | 33% | 33% | |
| 3-Yr Avg. Dividend Growth | 467.4% | |||||||
| 5-Yr Median Payout Ratio | 16.6% | |||||||