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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.8% - 9.8% | 10.3% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 7.2% - 8.3% | 7.8% |
| Fair Value | ¥19.96 - ¥40.39 | ¥26.09 |
| Upside | -59.5% - -18.1% | -47.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| Revenue | 2,288 | 2,733 | 3,240 | 3,645 | 3,918 | 4,056 | |
| % Growth | 36.8% | 19.5% | 18.6% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | |
| EBITDA | 153 | 344 | 432 | 577 | 660 | 683 | |
| % of Revenue | 6.7% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 15.8% | 16.8% | 16.8% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 344 | 432 | 577 | 660 | 683 | 683 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (39) | (29) | (33) | (35) | (36) | (85) | |
| EBIT | 305 | 403 | 545 | 625 | 646 | 598 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (43) | (56) | (76) | (87) | (90) | (84) | |
| NOPAT | 59 | 262 | 347 | 468 | 537 | 556 | 514 |
| Capital Expenditures | (120) | (60) | (60) | (80) | (86) | (89) | (89) |
| NWC Investment | (87) | (63) | (72) | (57) | (39) | (19) | (44) |
| (+) D&A | 84 | 39 | 29 | 33 | 35 | 36 | 85 |
| Free Cash Flow | (64) | 179 | 244 | 364 | 448 | 484 | 466 |
| % Growth | NM | 37% | 49% | 23% | 8% | -4% | |