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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 5.3% - 5.8% | 5.5% |
| Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.2% | 8.8% |
| Fair Value | ¥14.47 - ¥23.05 | ¥17.77 |
| Upside | -11.8% - 40.5% | 8.3% |
| Project Adjusted Dividends | ||||||||
| Fiscal Year Ending | ||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Terminal | |
| Net Income to Common | 388 | 585 | 782 | 920 | 1,181 | 1,325 | 1,325 | |
| % Growth | NM | 50.8% | 33.6% | 17.7% | 28.4% | 12.2% | ||
| Payout Ratio | 49.4% | 57.0% | 65.0% | 73.0% | 81.0% | 90.0% | 92.5% | |
| Projected Dividends | 192 | 333 | 508 | 672 | 957 | 1,193 | 1,226 | |
| % Growth | 74.1% | 52.4% | 32.2% | 42.4% | 24.7% | |||
| Historical Performance | ||||||||
| Fiscal Year Ending | YTD | YTD | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-19 | Dec-20 | Dec-21 | Dec-22 | Dec-23 | Sep-23 | Sep-24 | |
| Cash Dividends Paid | 125 | 119 | 143 | 194 | 192 | 154 | 266 | |
| % Growth | -5% | 20% | 36% | -1% | 72% | |||
| Net Income to Common | 825 | 913 | 836 | (880) | 388 | 354 | 361 | |
| % Growth | 11% | -8% | NM | NM | 2% | |||
| Payout Ratio | 15% | 13% | 17% | -22% | 49% | 44% | 74% | |
| Retention Ratio | 85% | 87% | 83% | 122% | 51% | 56% | 26% | |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 1,449 | 1,608 | 1,576 | 1,266 | 1,300 | 1,092 | 980 | |
| % Growth | 11% | -2% | -20% | 3% | -10% | |||
| Total Debt | 2,297 | 2,414 | 3,891 | 4,718 | 3,667 | 5,047 | 3,800 | |
| Shareholder's Equity | 8,348 | 9,243 | 13,024 | 12,106 | 12,497 | 12,462 | 12,678 | |
| Debt / EBITDA | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 3.2 | ||
| Debt / Equity | 28% | 26% | 30% | 39% | 29% | 41% | 30% | |
| 3-Yr Avg. Dividend Growth | 18.2% | |||||||
| 5-Yr Median Payout Ratio | 15.1% | |||||||