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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | -122.9x - -135.8x | -129.3x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | -105.1x - -116.1x | -110.6x |
| Fair Value | ¥8.52 - ¥9.74 | ¥9.13 |
| Upside | -47.8% - -40.2% | -44.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Shengli Oil & Gas Pipe Holdings Limited | 1080 | SEHK:1080 |
| Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation | 600871 | SHSE:600871 |
| Tong Petrotech Corp. | 300164 | SZSE:300164 |
| Recon Technology, Ltd. | RCON | NasdaqCM:RCON |
| Chu Kong Petroleum and Natural Gas Steel Pipe Holdings Limited | 1938 | SEHK:1938 |
| Sino Geophysical Co., Ltd | 300191 | SZSE:300191 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 1080 | 600871 | 300164 | RCON | 1938 | 300191 | ||
| SEHK:1080 | SHSE:600871 | SZSE:300164 | NasdaqCM:RCON | SEHK:1938 | SZSE:300191 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | 1.5% | -14.4% | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 22.9% | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 43.4% | 59.9% | 17.9% | 0.4% | 130.1% | 75.8% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | -11.6% | 1.8% | -9.7% | -89.7% | -7.2% | 0.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -15.2% | 1.6% | 6.7% | -101.8% | 1.3% | -23.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -8.9% | 2.3% | 5.2% | -104.0% | 2.8% | -7.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -8.9% | 2.5% | 4.9% | -115.3% | 2.8% | -6.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.28x | 0.60x | 1.74x | 4.37x | 0.59x | 12.83x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -5.0x | 9.1x | 15.8x | -4.0x | 11.9x | 68.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -3.1x | 23.7x | 35.5x | -3.8x | 21.4x | -198.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -3.8x | 21.4x | 35.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -100.0x | 79.4x | 200.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | -122.9x | -129.3x | -135.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | (31) | (31) | (31) | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,855 | 4,058 | 4,261 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,007) | (1,007) | (1,007) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,848 | 3,051 | 3,254 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 320.0 | 320.0 | 320.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 8.90 | 9.53 | 10.17 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 8.90 | 9.53 | 10.17 | 16.30 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -45.4% | -41.5% | -37.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 1080 | 600871 | 300164 | RCON | 1938 | 300191 | |
| Enterprise Value | 161 | 47,155 | 2,135 | 285 | 1,770 | 6,223 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 128 | 4,868 | 331 | 145 | 281 | 320 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 170 | 368 | 226 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| (-) Debt | (311) | (23,861) | (282) | (38) | (1,873) | (1,328) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (9) | 0 | (22) | 12 | 0 | (0) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 139 | 28,530 | 2,389 | 404 | 178 | 5,216 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3,874.4 | 15,175.8 | 588.5 | 28.0 | 1,011.1 | 320.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.04 | 1.88 | 4.06 | 14.43 | 0.18 | 16.30 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.21 | 0.92 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 0.04 | 1.88 | 4.06 | 2.00 | 0.19 | 16.30 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | CNY | CNY | USD | HKD | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.21 | 0.92 | 1.00 | |