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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted Dividend | ¥0.25 - ¥0.29 | ¥0.27 |
| Adjusted Dividend Yield | 2.6% - 3.0% | 2.8% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 7.8% - 8.3% | 8.0% |
| Discount Rate | 14.1% - 12.1% | 13.1% |
| Fair Value | ¥4.19 - ¥8.02 | ¥5.72 |
| Upside | -56.0% - -15.9% | -40.0% |
| Calculate Adjusted Dividend | ||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Latest | Notes | ||||||
| Net Income To Common | 150 | |||||||
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid | 0 | |||||||
| (=) Cash Retained | 150 | 100.0% | ||||||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% | % of net income needed for future growth | ||||
| Adj Net Income | 150 | 150 | 150 | |||||
| (=) Cash Required | 30 | 19 | 11 | |||||
| Cash Retained | 150 | 150 | 150 | |||||
| (-) Cash Required | (30) | (19) | (11) | |||||
| (=) Excess Retained | 120 | 131 | 139 | |||||
| (/) FX Rate Adjustment | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |||||
| (=) Excess Retained (CNY) | 120 | 131 | 139 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 483.1 | 483.1 | 483.1 | |||||
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.25 | 0.27 | 0.29 | |||||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |||||
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.25 | 0.27 | 0.29 | |||||
| Adjusted Dividend | 0.25 | 0.27 | 0.29 | |||||
| Sensitivity Analysis | ||||||||
| Adjusted Dividend | 0.27 | |||||||
| Cost of Equity | ||||||||
| Growth Rate | 12.1% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 13.6% | 14.1% | |||
| 6.0% | 4.70 | 4.34 | 4.04 | 3.77 | 3.54 | |||
| 7.0% | 5.67 | 5.16 | 4.74 | 4.38 | 4.08 | |||
| 8.0% | 7.11 | 6.34 | 5.72 | 5.21 | 4.79 | |||
| 9.0% | 9.47 | 8.16 | 7.17 | 6.40 | 5.77 | |||
| 10.0% | 14.05 | 11.37 | 9.55 | 8.24 | 7.24 | |||