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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 11.0% - 10.0% | 10.5% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 9.5x - 11.5x | 10.5x |
| Fair Value | ¥7.58 - ¥10.59 | ¥9.06 |
| Upside | -30.6% - -3.1% | -17.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 6,994 | 7,092 | 7,892 | 8,411 | 8,705 | 8,879 |
| % Growth | 1.8% | 1.4% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 290 | 638 | 783 | 880 | 911 | 929 |
| % of Revenue | 4.2% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 638 | 783 | 880 | 911 | 929 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (238) | (212) | (287) | (297) | (302) | |
| EBIT | 400 | 571 | 594 | 614 | 627 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (64) | (91) | (95) | (98) | (100) | |
| NOPAT | 104 | 336 | 480 | 499 | 516 | 526 |
| Capital Expenditures | (150) | (219) | (194) | (216) | (224) | (228) |
| NWC Investment | (63) | (50) | (410) | (266) | (151) | (89) |
| (+) D&A | 166 | 238 | 212 | 287 | 297 | 302 |
| Free Cash Flow | 58 | 305 | 88 | 303 | 438 | 511 |
| % Growth | 426% | -71% | 245% | 45% | 17% | |