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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | -34.9x - -38.6x | -36.7x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6.1x - 6.8x | 6.4x |
Fair Value | ¥6.65 - ¥7.32 | ¥6.98 |
Upside | -18.1% - -9.9% | -14.0% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Sino Geophysical Co., Ltd | 300191 | SZSE:300191 |
Recon Technology, Ltd. | RCON | NasdaqCM:RCON |
Tong Petrotech Corp. | 300164 | SZSE:300164 |
Sinopec Oilfield Equipment Corporation | 852 | SZSE:000852 |
Zhejiang Renzhi Co., Ltd. | 2629 | SZSE:002629 |
Haimo Technologies Group Corp. | 300084 | SZSE:300084 |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
300191 | RCON | 300164 | 852 | 2629 | 300084 | ||
SZSE:300191 | NasdaqCM:RCON | SZSE:300164 | SZSE:000852 | SZSE:002629 | SZSE:300084 | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 1.2% | NM- | -10.5% | 7.4% | NM- | NM- | |
3Y CAGR | -10.3% | NM- | 60.0% | 3.0% | NM- | NM- | |
Latest Twelve Months | 318.5% | 0.4% | 5.2% | -4.9% | 170.1% | -150.1% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 15.9% | -85.2% | 2.2% | 4.6% | -16.8% | 7.9% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | -6.6% | -96.3% | 14.1% | 4.4% | -22.8% | 16.8% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 15.6% | -99.9% | 11.5% | 4.7% | 7.6% | -11.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 18.8% | -110.5% | 11.0% | 4.4% | 9.4% | -11.2% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 14.57x | 5.68x | 2.54x | 1.07x | 8.32x | 6.52x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 77.6x | -5.1x | 23.1x | 24.2x | 88.5x | -58.4x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | -225.2x | -4.9x | 51.8x | 61.5x | 103.6x | -34.5x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -5.1x | 24.2x | 88.5x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -9.7x | 24.0x | 63.0x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | -34.9x | -36.7x | -38.6x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | (68) | (68) | (68) | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,383 | 2,508 | 2,633 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 155 | 155 | 155 | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 2,537 | 2,663 | 2,788 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 510.2 | 510.2 | 510.2 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 4.97 | 5.22 | 5.46 | ||||
FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 4.97 | 5.22 | 5.46 | 8.12 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -38.8% | -35.7% | -32.7% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 300191 | RCON | 300164 | 852 | 2629 | 300084 | |
Enterprise Value | 7,064 | 370 | 3,118 | 8,425 | 2,655 | 3,988 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 320 | 145 | 331 | 430 | 7 | 625 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 1 | 0 | 226 | 43 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (1,328) | (38) | (282) | (2,491) | (9) | (455) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (0) | 12 | (22) | (165) | (15) | (15) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 6,058 | 489 | 3,372 | 6,241 | 2,638 | 4,143 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 320.0 | 28.0 | 588.5 | 941.3 | 426.1 | 510.2 | |
Implied Stock Price | 18.93 | 17.48 | 5.73 | 6.63 | 6.19 | 8.12 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 7.16 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 18.93 | 2.44 | 5.73 | 6.63 | 6.19 | 8.12 | |
Trading Currency | CNY | USD | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 7.16 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |