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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 4.2x - 6.2x | 5.2x |
| Fair Value | ¥3.26 - ¥4.98 | ¥4.11 |
| Upside | -51.0% - -25.1% | -38.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 |
| Revenue | 744 | 952 | 1,213 | 1,456 | 1,638 | 1,761 |
| % Growth | 18.6% | 28.0% | 27.4% | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| EBITDA | 115 | 207 | 260 | 385 | 474 | 528 |
| % of Revenue | 15.4% | 21.8% | 21.5% | 26.5% | 29.0% | 30.0% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | |
| EBITDA | 207 | 260 | 385 | 474 | 528 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (67) | (63) | (76) | (86) | (92) | |
| EBIT | 141 | 197 | 309 | 389 | 435 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (25) | (35) | (56) | (70) | (78) | |
| NOPAT | 55 | 115 | 161 | 253 | 319 | 357 |
| Capital Expenditures | (23) | (7) | (17) | (20) | (23) | (25) |
| NWC Investment | (111) | (198) | (249) | (231) | (173) | (117) |
| (+) D&A | 48 | 67 | 63 | 76 | 86 | 92 |
| Free Cash Flow | (31) | (23) | (41) | 78 | 208 | 308 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | 166% | 48% | |