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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 10.3x - 12.3x | 11.3x |
| Fair Value | ¥16.06 - ¥19.02 | ¥17.49 |
| Upside | -12.0% - 4.2% | -4.2% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 |
| Revenue | 754 | 1,747 | 2,396 | 2,875 | 3,234 | 3,476 | 3,598 | 3,670 | 3,744 | 3,818 | 3,895 |
| % Growth | 4.0% | 131.8% | 37.1% | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | -22 | 461 | 687 | 968 | 1,170 | 1,293 | 1,338 | 1,365 | 1,392 | 1,420 | 1,448 |
| % of Revenue | -2.9% | 26.4% | 28.7% | 33.7% | 36.2% | 37.2% | 37.2% | 37.2% | 37.2% | 37.2% | 37.2% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | |
| EBITDA | 461 | 687 | 968 | 1,170 | 1,293 | 1,338 | 1,365 | 1,392 | 1,420 | 1,448 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (135) | (156) | (187) | (211) | (226) | (234) | (239) | (244) | (249) | (254) | |
| EBIT | 326 | 531 | 781 | 959 | 1,066 | 1,103 | 1,125 | 1,148 | 1,171 | 1,194 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (42) | (69) | (102) | (125) | (139) | (143) | (146) | (149) | (152) | (155) | |
| NOPAT | (56) | 284 | 462 | 679 | 835 | 928 | 960 | 979 | 999 | 1,019 | 1,039 |
| Capital Expenditures | (112) | (138) | (204) | (245) | (275) | (296) | (272) | (278) | (282) | (277) | (279) |
| NWC Investment | (12) | (411) | (268) | (198) | (149) | (100) | (50) | (30) | (30) | (31) | (32) |
| (+) D&A | 42 | 135 | 156 | 187 | 211 | 226 | 234 | 239 | 244 | 249 | 254 |
| Free Cash Flow | (138) | (130) | 146 | 424 | 621 | 758 | 872 | 911 | 930 | 959 | 982 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | 191% | 47% | 22% | 15% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | |