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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.4x - 0.4x | 0.4x |
| Fair Value | ¥15.56 - ¥17.23 | ¥16.38 |
| Upside | 61.4% - 78.7% | 69.9% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 |
| Revenue | 52,616 | 61,495 | 72,544 | 85,264 | 95,922 | 103,116 |
| % Growth | 43.4% | 16.9% | 18.0% | 17.5% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| EBITDA | 34 | 336 | 617 | 782 | 3,277 | 4,554 |
| % of Revenue | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | |
| EBITDA | 336 | 617 | 782 | 3,277 | 4,554 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 93 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (126) | (59) | (69) | (78) | (83) | |
| EBIT | 210 | 558 | 806 | 3,200 | 4,471 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (34) | (89) | (129) | (512) | (715) | |
| NOPAT | 17 | 176 | 469 | 677 | 2,688 | 3,755 |
| Capital Expenditures | (16) | (20) | (38) | (26) | (30) | (32) |
| NWC Investment | (62) | (35) | (43) | (50) | (42) | (28) |
| (+) D&A | 14 | 126 | 59 | 69 | 78 | 83 |
| Free Cash Flow | (48) | 248 | 446 | 670 | 2,694 | 3,779 |
| % Growth | NM | 80% | 50% | 302% | 40% | |