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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.4x - 0.4x | 0.4x |
| Fair Value | ¥16.81 - ¥18.68 | ¥17.72 |
| Upside | 74.4% - 93.8% | 83.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 |
| Revenue | 52,616 | 61,495 | 72,544 | 85,264 | 95,922 | 103,116 | 106,725 | 108,860 | 111,037 | 113,258 | 115,523 |
| % Growth | 43.4% | 16.9% | 18.0% | 17.5% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 34 | 336 | 617 | 782 | 3,277 | 4,554 | 4,714 | 4,808 | 4,904 | 5,002 | 5,102 |
| % of Revenue | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | ||
| EBITDA | 336 | 617 | 782 | 3,277 | 4,554 | 4,714 | 4,808 | 4,904 | 5,002 | 5,102 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (126) | (59) | (69) | (78) | (83) | (86) | (88) | (90) | (92) | (94) | |
| EBIT | 210 | 558 | 806 | 3,200 | 4,471 | 4,627 | 4,720 | 4,814 | 4,910 | 5,009 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (34) | (89) | (129) | (512) | (715) | (740) | (755) | (770) | (786) | (801) | |
| NOPAT | 17 | 176 | 469 | 677 | 2,688 | 3,755 | 3,887 | 3,965 | 4,044 | 4,125 | 4,207 |
| Capital Expenditures | (16) | (20) | (38) | (26) | (30) | (32) | (29) | (30) | (30) | (30) | (30) |
| NWC Investment | (62) | (35) | (43) | (50) | (42) | (28) | (14) | (8) | (9) | (9) | (9) |
| (+) D&A | 14 | 126 | 59 | 69 | 78 | 83 | 86 | 88 | 90 | 92 | 94 |
| Free Cash Flow | (48) | 248 | 446 | 670 | 2,694 | 3,779 | 3,930 | 4,015 | 4,095 | 4,178 | 4,262 |
| % Growth | 80% | 50% | 302% | 40% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | ||