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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 4.3x - 4.7x | 4.5x |
| Fair Value | ¥5.67 - ¥6.56 | ¥6.11 |
| Upside | 11.4% - 29.0% | 20.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 |
| Revenue | 645 | 645 | 645 | 645 | 645 | 645 |
| % Growth | -9.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 2 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| % of Revenue | 0.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | |
| EBITDA | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (35) | (35) | (35) | (35) | (35) | |
| EBIT | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| NOPAT | (29) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) |
| Capital Expenditures | (44) | (58) | (58) | (58) | (58) | (58) |
| NWC Investment | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 |
| Free Cash Flow | (16) | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | |