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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1.5x - 1.6x | 1.6x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1.2x - 1.4x | 1.3x |
| Fair Value | ¥9.97 - ¥11.02 | ¥10.49 |
| Upside | 10.6% - 22.3% | 16.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging Co., Ltd. | 301296 | SZSE:301296 |
| Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co., Ltd. | 601968 | SHSE:601968 |
| Xiamen Hexing Packaging Printing Co., Ltd. | 2228 | SZSE:002228 |
| Shanghai Sunglow Packaging Technology Co.,Ltd | 603499 | SHSE:603499 |
| Ningbo Joy Intelligent Logistics Technology Co.,Ltd. | 301198 | SZSE:301198 |
| Guangdong Tengen Industrial Group Co.,Ltd. | 3003 | SZSE:003003 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 301296 | 601968 | 2228 | 603499 | 301198 | 3003 | |||
| SZSE:301296 | SHSE:601968 | SZSE:002228 | SHSE:603499 | SZSE:301198 | SZSE:003003 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 15.1% | 9.3% | 0.4% | 14.2% | 4.7% | 7.0% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 19.6% | 10.3% | 1.1% | 12.8% | 14.6% | 11.7% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 1.6% | -0.5% | -10.5% | 12.1% | -20.0% | -20.8% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 14.4% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 16.0% | 3.6% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 12.6% | 4.2% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 13.9% | -0.1% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 12.9% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 3.8% | 9.9% | 4.1% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 11.2% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | 5.8% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.70x | 0.81x | 0.41x | 7.51x | 4.74x | 1.34x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 15.2x | 21.1x | 26.5x | 109.3x | 253.6x | 23.2x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 2.30x | 0.74x | 0.31x | 7.33x | 5.08x | 1.33x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.41x | 1.70x | 7.51x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 1.27x | 1.51x | 2.29x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.48x | 1.56x | 1.63x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 1,182 | 1,182 | 1,182 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,749 | 1,841 | 1,933 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (8) | (8) | (8) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,741 | 1,833 | 1,925 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 175.2 | 175.2 | 175.2 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 9.94 | 10.46 | 10.99 | |||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 9.94 | 10.46 | 10.99 | 9.01 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 10.3% | 16.1% | 22.0% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 301296 | 601968 | 2228 | 603499 | 301198 | 3003 | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,370 | 5,921 | 4,352 | 5,332 | 1,279 | 1,586 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 453 | 641 | 532 | 107 | 342 | 353 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 837 | 201 | 65 | 155 | 21 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (240) | (1,164) | (1,462) | (351) | (245) | (362) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (188) | (197) | (52) | (0) | 1 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,421 | 5,412 | 3,290 | 5,192 | 1,396 | 1,578 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 416.6 | 1,261.4 | 1,158.4 | 216.1 | 169.0 | 175.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 8.21 | 4.29 | 2.84 | 24.02 | 8.26 | 9.01 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 8.21 | 4.29 | 2.84 | 24.02 | 8.26 | 9.01 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |