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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 42.7x - 44.7x | 43.7x |
| Fair Value | ¥9.41 - ¥10.64 | ¥10.01 |
| Upside | -25.9% - -16.2% | -21.2% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 1,151 | 1,151 | 1,151 | 1,151 | 1,151 | 1,151 | 1,151 | 1,151 | 1,151 | 1,151 | 1,151 |
| % Growth | -18.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 106 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 |
| % of Revenue | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | (43) | |
| EBIT | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | |
| NOPAT | 52 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 |
| Capital Expenditures | (40) | (68) | (68) | (68) | (68) | (68) | (68) | (68) | (68) | (68) | (68) |
| NWC Investment | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 45 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 |
| Free Cash Flow | 115 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| % Growth | -91% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |